2012 Fantasy Baseball Bust Watch

Every year fantasy baseball players are overrated due to previous seasons and unfilled hope. Last year we had one of the worst failed players in a season, Adam Dunn, who was ranked highly in the ESPN rankings. This year I am going to give a heads up on some of the players that could end up hurting a fantasy team by position due to injuries or high hopes that have been built up from previous seasons.

Catchers: Carlos Santana

1B: N/A

2B: Ben Zobrist

3B: Kevin Youkilis

SS: Jose Reyes

OF: Curtis Granderson, Alex Gordon, Shane Victorino, Jay Bruce

SP: CJ Wilson, Matt Garza, Mat Latos

Fantasy Sleepers Pt. 3 of 3

SP:

Carlos Zambrano (361) - In 11 seasons Zambrano has a career record of 125-81 and an ERA of 3.60. Many people overlook these numbers due to the attitude problems he has had the last few years, but his talent is still there. Zambrano has been on fire his last few starts in Spring Training and his attitude seems to be improving. I think with Ozzie Guillen coaching him and the nice move out of Chicago he could be a changed player and maybe we can see part of the game we saw in his premier days.

Rick Porcello (505) – At only 23 years old Porcello is already in his 3^rd season as an MLB starter. He has a career record of 38-30 and an ERA of 4.54. While Porcello has weak stats he was once a top prospect and has shown glimpses of his potential throughout his short career. Porcello has only had more than 100 strikeouts in 1 of his seasons so he is definitely weak in the strikeout category. While many say he was just another fluke his problem could have been forced by being brought up so early and may have caused some confidence problems. With the line-up supporting him having potential to break many MLB records he could get a lot of wins and this could boost his confidence and put him in line to finally be the player he can be.

 Guillermo Moscoso (548) – Guillermo finally broke into the majors as a starting pitcher last season at the age of 27 and man did he prove he can play. In 128 innings Guillermo posted a 8-10 record and 3.38 ERA for the Oakland Athletics in 2011.  He also carried a solid 1.09 WHIP for the season. The only problem with Moscoso is he isn’t too good at striking out batters, only 74 in 2011. Strikeouts aside thought Moscoso could be one of the biggest steals of the draft. After being traded to Colorado he is sure to have a slight increase in ERA, I’d put him in the mid-3.50s, but he will have a better line up supporting him and should get between 12-15 wins in 2012.

Fantasy Sleepers Pt. 2 of 3

SS:

Alex Gonzalez (314) – At 35 years old Gonzalez is past his prime and many think his career is done. Don’t give up on him just yet. Even with a horrible .247 career average you could still get some help late with Gonzalez. You can find better average but the power is the key to this sleeper pick. Averaging 16 homers per season for 13 seasons is pretty good and he will most likely have another 20+ HR season, if you can get 20 or more homers this late at shortstop you made a smart pick.

 Zack Cozart (340) – This young stud hit .324 with 2 HRs last season in 37 Abs. a .310 average in 2011 in the minors shows this was no short fluke though. There’s no question the kid can play, the question is his health. Cozart had surgery on both his elbow and ankle in the offseason but should be back to complete health now. I wouldn’t expect a lot of power here 10 to 15 HRs is reasonable, but with a great average potential Cozart is worth a late risk.

Tyler Pastornicky (364) – Part of the Yunel Escobar deal, Pastornicky seems ready to move to the major league level in 2012. A solid line drive hitter shows he has potential to hit above his .278 average His .365 average in AAA ball also shows this. His weak spot is power, only hitting two homers in his first 636 minor league ABs. He did hit 6 in 2010 but this still isn’t much. The strong spot for Pastornicky is his speed.  He has stolen 146 bases on 189 attempts. I expect an utility roll in 2012 so expect to see him play many positions, but this late in a draft you could use some steals and a solid line drive hitter.

3B:

Chris Davis (277) – Four years of unpromising talent has led to much disappointment in Davis. Over his four year career he has struck out in 31.5% of his ABs. Only players that have a worse strikeout percentage are Mark Reynolds and Kelly Shoppach.  This is a sure sign he will not be a high average hitter, but it doesn’t mean he is useless.  I could see a solid amount of power out of Davis and he could really help out some power number (15-25 HRs is reasonable). If you need some pop he’s worth the risk, if not then stay away.

 Scott Rolen (325) – The 31 year old veteran has a career .282 average and 308 homers in his career. You may look at his numbers last season and look in shame, but he didn’t play a complete season. Take a look at Rolen in 2010. A .285 average with 20 HRs and 85 RBIs. Rolen may be out of his prime but he showed in 2010 he can still play. If he plays an entire season in 2012 he could be a .280+ hitter with 15+ homers.

 Placido Polonco (332) – One of the greatest contact hitters of the era, or even ever, has got little recognition for his career .301 average. In 13 seasons Polanco has only struck out a total of 482 times, that’s only 37 per season! With eligibility at 2B/SS/3B there’s no excuse to not have Polonco on your roster. He has proven is his dominant career he is consistent and he WILL help your average and won’t cost your many Ks if your league counts them.

OF:

Ben Revere (378) – Revere stole 34 bases last season and has potential to reach 50+ in a season. You won’t get much of an average of power from Revere (and considering his team few runs also) but you will get speed. At only 23 years old Revere has a bright future and will be racking up steals for years to come. His team will help and hurt his value at the same time, while he won’t be drove in as much I am sure he will be put into more steal plays. With no one to drive him in I see a lot of attempts at making an easier scoring opportunity for the team and with his speed that means steal.

 Seth Smith (422) – As a fantasy owner I always love having Seth Smith on my roster. I mean who wouldn’t of like his .284 average, 15 HRs and 10 SBs on their team? I really don’t understand why Smith gets no credit at all, he’s actually a solid player. If your league counts triples how does 9 sound? Well that’s what he hit last season. An overall talented batter that only has one problem this season. He plays for Oakland. With a horrible offense I would assume his numbers decrease slightly but with a few talents in the mix I’m sure Smith can handle himself.

 Jason Bourgeois (529) – 31 stolen bases in only 93 last games last season. Add in a .294 average on the worst team in the league, the Astros, and you got a diamond in the ruff named Jason Bourgeois. If you look closely you will realize he is identical to a former Houston play, that player in Michael Bourn. With the same speed and potential to hit for average Bourgeois is the Astros new Michael Bourn. I’m sure soon he will be traded away to a contender but I wouldn’t pass on Bourgeois if you’re in a deep league, this guy is FAST!